WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
11:10 AM ECT SUN, JUL 8, 2018
THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
…BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…
AT 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST OR APPROXIMATELY 314 MILES ESE OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND APPROXIMATELY 523 MILES ESE OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 23 MPH (37 KM/H) AND THIS MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERYL OR ITS REMNANTS WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY, CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT, AND MOVE NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).
THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR BERYL TO PASS A SAFE DISTANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL, ANY POSSIBLE MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS THUS WATCHES OR WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL. WINDS FROM THE EAST AVERAGING BETWEEN 28-46KM/H OR 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF BERYL; HENCE A HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 2.4 TO 3 METRES OR 8 TO 10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT.
ALL RESIDENTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AROUND 5:00 PM ECT
FORECASTER
LETITIA HUMPHREYS
