SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…14.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 805 MI…1295 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
875 SSE OF ROAD TOWN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Barthelemy. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches could be required early Monday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Tuesday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the northern Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning Monday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The Virgin Islands will continue to monitor this cyclone as we have been placed under a Tropical Storm Watch.
Residents should continue to closely monitor this system and work to complete any seasonal preparations in case this system develops into a threat for the Virgin Islands
For more information, see the link below: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/112335.shtml
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not a Meteorological Office. Information shared by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources contracted by the Department. This information should be used as a guide for anyone who has an interest in local weather conditions. By no means can DDM or the Government of the Virgin Islands be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
