are predicting that the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will be “one of the
least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century”.
is the synopsis of the Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane
Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2015, which was issued on Thursday
by research scientists at the Colorado State University (CSU).
what they expect to be “a below average probability for major hurricanes making
landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean”, forecasters
predict that 2015 will have only three hurricanes and seven named storms. One
of the three forecasted hurricanes is expected to be major.
probability of a less active season is being attributed to a relatively cool
tropical Atlantic and El Nino, with forecasters saying one of moderate strength
is likely to develop in the summer and fall. El Nino refers to warmer than average sea-surface temperatures in the
Pacific which inhibits storm development in the Atlantic.
prediction cautions that “despite the forecast for below-average activity,
coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall
to make it an active season for them”.
of Disaster Management (DDM) is offering similar words of caution to the BVI
Director of the DDM, Ms. Evangeline Inniss said, “It is important that
residents remain keenly aware of the hazards to which the BVI is susceptible
and the preparatory measures that should be taken to reduce their effects.”
Inniss also underscored the need to be continuously vigilant. “We cannot be complacent.
It is true that we have been fortunate not to have experienced significant
hurricane impact in recent years but the danger still exists and we must
maintain a state of readiness at all times. A well-prepared population is a
Deputy Director cautioned too about the increasing occurrence of events outside
of the Atlantic hurricane season. “Tropical storms or hurricanes are not the
only systems that can bring heavy rainfall to the Territory. Past experience in
the BVI and elsewhere in the Caribbean has shown that other systems such as
troughs can bring similarly intense rainfall periods. It is imperative
therefore that we maintain year-round vigilance especially considering the
level of vulnerability of critical systems and exposure of our islands and in
particular, our coastal and hillside communities.”
The DDM is fully
committed to the process of comprehensive disaster management, with work being
done across all phases of the disaster management cycle – prevention and
mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and rehabilitation and within all
sectors, focusing on all hazards that can potentially impact the Territory. The work
of the department is guided by a Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy and
Programming Framework which has been approved by Cabinet for the period
2014-2018. The theme of that strategy is avoidable
loss of lives, livelihoods and property reduced and development gains