At 5:00 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or
over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. St. Barthelemy recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin spreading over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
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Forecaster Beven
