With some around the Atlantic basin still recovering from the historic storm activity of 2020, the first forecast of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season from Colorado State University says that we may be in for another active season. While it is still too soon to predict the number of storms and hurricanes, forecasters look at some of the dominant factors influencing this season’s outlook.
The first factor is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), which alternates between positive cycles that tend to bring more active hurricane seasons and negative cycles with less active hurricane seasons. Based on recent years’ activity, forecasters have high confidence that the AMO is in a positive cycle this year.
The second factor is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern, which, when active, inhibits storm activity. As is typical for this time of the year, ENSO’s outlook and how strongly it may impact the Atlantic Hurricane Season is uncertain.
Depending on these two factors, forecasters anticipate the following scenarios for the coming season.
There is a 25 % chance for an extremely active season.
There is a 35 % of an above-average season.
There is a 20 % chance for a near-average season.
There is a 10 % chance for a below-average season.
The AMO and ENSO are only two of the many factors that can change how many storms we see in 2021. A typical hurricane season has 13 named tropical storms and seven hurricanes. However, it won’t be until April that forecasters can make more definitive predictions about the weather conditions that may lead to more or fewer storms in the Atlantic basin.
Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, residents are reminded that it’s essential to remain ready throughout the year as storms can take place at any time.
Everyone has a part to play in emergency preparedness, so it’s important to be #ReadyTogether. Continue to monitor the DDM’s webpage www.bviddm.com and follow us on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter to stay up to date on the latest information about 2021 hurricane season in the months to come.