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DISTURBANCE 1 AFFECTING THE BVI..FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT

DISTURBANCE 1 AFFECTING THE BVI..FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT

August 22, 2005859Views

Synopsis:
An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical
wave and low pressure centre is affecting the Eastern Caribbean. It will
continue to heighten the chances for cloudiness and showers today and tonight.
The Flash Flood Watch for the British Virgin Islands has been extended until
12PM midday today. Residents should continue to monitor weather conditions in the
event the watch has to be upgraded to a Flash Flood Warning.  

Wx:
Skies
today will be cloudy with scattered showers. Some of the showers could be
moderate to heavy at times and accompanied by isolated thunderstorms. Tonight
skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy with scattered showers.

Winds: SE-SSE at 5-10 kts
gusting higher in showers.

Seas: Locally rough waves
2.1-2.4m/7-8 ft. Warnings for mariners and sea bathers remain in effect.

Barometric
Pressure:

Below normal

Sunset
today:

6:40 pm.

Sunrise
tomorrow:
6:02
am.

 

DISTURBANCE 1

 

A recent satellite wind data pass indicates
that Disturbance 1 has become slightly less defined over the past 6 to 9 hours.
There are no west winds occurring on the south side of where the low-level
circulation was trying to form earlier when aircraft was investigating the
system. Due to the current organizational state of the disturbance, as well as
the latest model guidance, forecasters do not expect it to develop within the
next 24 hours. Forecasters expect it to become a tropical depression on
Saturday as it moves through the Turks and Caicos Islands. It should become a
tropical storm by late Saturday or early Sunday as the forward motion slows
down in the vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas.

Forecasters have decent confidence in the
forecast through the first 48 hours. Thereafter, the track forecast remains low
confidence. A trough over the western Atlantic Ocean is likely to cause the
system to turn northward in the vicinity of the Bahamas on Monday. However,
there is a slight chance that the trough could pass without carrying
Disturbance 1 out to sea.

There is an 80 percent chance that it will
move out to sea without affecting the southeast coast of the United States. Although
80 percent of the models are taking it out to sea, a few continue to indicate a
threat to the southeast U.S. One or two models (out of about 50 models) still
indicate a track through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The models are in better agreement on the
intensity forecast. Many models are indicating that the system should be a
strengthening tropical storm as it moves near the Bahamas on Monday, and many
models indicate it could become a hurricane by Tuesday. Forecasters think it is
very likely to become at least a tropical storm. Forecasters think that
conditions will be quite favorable for strengthening in the Bahamas, and think
it has about a 35 percent chance of being a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.