August 18, 20151556Views
The Department of Disaster Management is continuing to track the progress of Disturbance 1 or Invest 96L which is becoming better organised.
At 8:00 a.m., Disturbance 1 or Invest 96L was located at 10.5 degrees North, 35.8 degrees West. The system is moving west at 15 miles per hour and continues to become better organised.
If current organisational trends continue, forecasters think the system has a very good chance of becoming a tropical depression sometime today. By Thursday, as the system approaches 40 degrees West, it may become a tropical storm. 
Forecasters are fairly confident that the system will continue moving to the west-northwest. However, there exists much uncertainty regarding the forecast intensity. 
Some of the model data suggest that the system could maintain tropical storm intensity by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles in about seven days. However, the system may succumb to the dry air to its north. 
There also remains plenty of wind shear over the Caribbean. Therefore, the system may weaken substantially before reaching the Caribbean. 
Although at present Disturbance 1 or Invest 96 L is not a threat to the British Virgin Islands, residents are advised to monitor the system as it progresses and keep abreast of updates issued by the Department of Disaster Management.
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