July 28, 20141036Views

Current Location: 10N, 33.9W

Geographic Reference: 1765 miles
ESE of Barbados

Movement: West at 15

Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical
Storm Force Winds: 
70 miles


Satellite imagery indicates that
Disturbance 1 is becoming better organized and could become a depression at any
time over the next 48 hours. Almost all model guidance indicates it will
strengthen and likely be a tropical storm as it moves through the northern
Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands late this week or over the weekend. Forecasters
do not rule out the possibility of it reaching hurricane strength before moving
through the Leeward Islands, however at this time forecasters think it will be
a moderate to strong tropical storm.

The current motion is virtually due west, but a west-northwest
motion is expected over the next few days. A turn to the northwest is expected
as it nears the Leeward Islands, with a northward turn once it is north of
Puerto Rico. At this time Disturbance 1 is not a threat to the Virgin Islands
however at present, models are indicating that the system may have an effect on
the Virgin Islands as it progresses closer.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Lesser Antilles north of 14N
latitude: Squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely on Saturday.

 Residents are reminded that we
are in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season and all preparations should have been
made in the event the territory was to be affected by a Tropical Cyclone. The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor Disturbance 1
and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at
and subscribe for updates. 

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.