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DISTURBANCE 1 BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED…RESIDENTS URGED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM

DISTURBANCE 1 BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED…RESIDENTS URGED TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM

October 11, 2005934Views

Current Position: 16.7N, 55.6W

Geographic Reference: 390 miles east of the Leeward Islands

Movement: West-northwest at 14 mph

Chance of Development
Within 48 Hours: 
45 percent

Chance of Development
Within 7 Days: 
70 percent

Changes From Our
Previous Forecast

 Forecast

The forecast track projects Invest 90L (Disturbance 1) to pass
through the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday and through the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico on Monday. The disturbance has become better organized, and
there is a chance that it could become a tropical depression prior to reaching
the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Although the American and European Models
keep this below tropical storm force through the next few days, environmental
conditions appear to be quite favorable for development. It is possible that Disturbance
1 could become a tropical storm with winds of 40 mph to 45 mph prior to moving
over Puerto Rico on Monday afternoon. After this system moves north of
Hispaniola, it is likely to be a strengthening tropical storm by the latter
portion of next week.

 

Expected Impacts Onshore

The Virgin Islands: The main impact will be rainfall. Heavy rain is expected to
produce minor flooding over portions of the Virgin Islands.

Southeast Bahamas/Turks and Caicos: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
middle to latter part of next week.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Winds to the lower limits of tropical storm force are possible in
the northeastern Caribbean on Monday. Tropical storm force winds are possible
for the waters near the southeastern Bahamas in the middle to latter part of
next week.

 

Residents are encouraged to monitor the progress of Disturbance 1
as moves further east. The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will
continue to monitor the system and provide updates accordingly. Please visit
the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates.