July 29, 20051545Views

Current Location: 9.8N,

Geographic Reference: 1410 miles
east of Barbados

Movement: West at 18

Peak Forecast Radius of Tropical
Storm Force Winds: 
90 miles

Changes From Our Previous

The chance of development within
48 hours has been increased from 80 to 85 percent. The track forecast is
slightly farther west.


Satellite imagery and satellite
derived wind data indicate that Disturbance 1 continues to become better
organized. It is close to becoming a tropical depression. The disturbance could
be officially upgraded to a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Centre
later today. Satellite imagery shows dry air is building to the northeast of
the disturbance. Although the disturbance is likely to become a tropical storm,
marginal environmental conditions are likely to prevent it from strengthening
to a hurricane. However, there is still a slight chance it could become a
hurricane prior to reaching the Lesser Antilles.

Disturbance 1 has been moving due westward at 18 mph over the past
12 hours. This motion is expected to continue, with a gradual turn to the west-northwest
over the next few days. It will most likely move through the northern Leeward
Islands as a tropical storm on Saturday, and it has a chance to pass close
enough to the Virgin Islands to produce some minor impacts there as well. A
trough over or just east of the East Coast of the U.S. is likely to cause the
system to recurve northward and out to sea, to the east of the U.S. East Coast.
However, there are some models that indicate a more southern and western track
through the Greater Antilles and into the eastern Gulf in 8-10 days. While
there is a slight chance of this happening, we are much more strongly favoring
the re-curvature scenario. If it were to move farther south and west, wind
shear along its path would be stronger, and it would likely only be a weak
tropical storm at best in 7 to 9 days.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Lesser Antilles north of 14N
Squalls with sustained winds to tropical storm force are likely
within 80 miles to the north of the center and possibly within 40 miles to the
south of the center on Saturday. Minor flooding from excessive rainfall is

Virgin Islands: On Sunday,
squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are possible, especially if the
system moves slightly to the south of the forecast.


Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.