16th September 2019 – Disturbance 1 is located about 1200 miles to the east-southeast of Barbados near 10.5N, 42.0W. It is moving towards the west at around 14 mph. The disturbance is forecast to turn to the northwest this week. The disturbance is becoming better organized as an area of low pressure has formed. Conditions are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several days. The disturbance could become a tropical storm by Wednesday or Thursday. The chance of tropical development is estimated at 80 percent.
Forecasters have the disturbance passing north or near the British Virgin Islands around Saturday however this is based on current information. The system is still moving west and has not begun to turn west North West or North West meaning the longer it takes to do so it can track closer to the British Virgin Islands. Residents should continue prepare and be ready in any event.
A tropical wave located 55W yesterday is now located across the eastern Caribbean along 62W and is moving towards the west at around 25 mph. The system is expected to weaken over the next few days as it tracks westward across the Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is producing enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the Lesser Antilles and this should continue into tonight. This thunderstorm activity is expected to spread across the British Virgin Islands later today into Tuesday. Tropical development is not expected.
As in the previous update no estimation has been given in the amount of rainfall however, if this information becomes available it will be shared. As the wave is expected to pass overnight persons should use daylight hours to check drains, secure items that can get wet and be aware of exit strategies in the event flooding was to occur. Please note these are just precautions in the event showers and thunderstorms are heavier than expected. Any updates pertaining watches or warnings will be issued if deemed necessary.
Persons at home and abroad are encouraged to download the DDM’s Alert app in the Apple App store or Google Play store to receive updates of any hazards affecting the Territory.
You can also visit the DDM’s webpage at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates or like us on Facebook at www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.