Image credited to the National Hurricane Centre

4th July 2018 – Disturbance 1 is located in the Tropical Atlantic about 1950 miles east of Trinidad.  Satellite imagery over the past 12 hours indicates increasing squalls and some signs of a developing circulation centre as it moves West North West.   The disturbance is located near the leading edge of a major outbreak of African dust, a location that is often favorable for tropical development.  However, the disturbance will be fighting a generally hostile environment on its westward path toward the Caribbean over the next 5 days.  Forecasters estimate that there is a 20 percent chance that it will develop into a tropical storm over the next day or two.  Beyond then, the disturbance will begin encountering a less favorable environment for development.  Forecasters think it will bring increased showers and thunderstorms to the islands of the northeast Caribbean next Sunday evening, but not likely as a tropical storm.

Elsewhere, a non-tropical low pressure area is located in the open Atlantic a few hundred miles south of Bermuda.  Although forecasters’ have not identified it as a tropical disturbance, there is a 20 percent chance that the National Hurricane Center may upgrade it to a subtropical depression or storm over the next few days as it tracks southwest of Bermuda then turns to the northeast and heads out to sea over the weekend.

Residents and Visitors are encouraged to monitor the disturbance for any changes. The DDM will continue to provide updates as the system progresses.

 Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.