July 31, 20051540Views

Current Location: 11.3N,

Geographic Reference: 575 miles
east-southeast of Barbados

Movement: West-northwest
at 19 mph



A satellite pass overnight
indicated that the surface circulation was fairly well-defined with maximum
sustained winds to 35 mph north of the centre and 25 mph south of the centre.
Satellite imagery indicates that although there have been some bursts of thunderstorms
near the centre, dry air continues to affect the disturbance. The centre is
still exposed, with thunderstorms located to the south of the centre. Forecasters
now think that the disturbance has a 50 percent chance of developing into a
tropical depression or a minimal tropical storm before reaching the Lesser
Antilles. Regardless of classification, forecasters think the maximum sustained
winds will likely be near 35 mph when it moves through the islands. It may
possibly be as strong as a 40 mph tropical storm.

There have been no significant changes to the track forecast or
the expected impacts. The system should maintain an intensity of about 35 mph
for the next 3 days until it clears the Caribbean Sea. Forecasters think that
it will be weakening on Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Bahamas, with
dissipation on Tuesday as it turns northward. Any remnant should turn
northeastward as it merges with a trough.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Lesser Antilles north of 13N
Squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are possible late
Friday and early Saturday. Rains may be enough to cause a few areas of minor

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: On
Saturday through early Sunday, squalls with gusts to tropical storm force are
possible. Heavy rainfall could cause some minor flooding.



Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result
in the loss of finances, property or life.