close
DISTURBANCE 1 NOT ORGANIZED…EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

DISTURBANCE 1 NOT ORGANIZED…EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

October 11, 2005996Views

Current Position: 16.5N, 54.7W

Geographic Reference: 445 miles east of the Leeward Islands

Movement: West-northwest at 18 mph

Chance of Development
Within 48 Hours: 
30 percent

Chance of Development
Within 120 hours: 
60
percent

Changes From Previous
Forecast

No significant changes.

 Forecast

As of 10:00AM, Invest
90L (Disturbance 1) did not become any better organized overnight. Only a small
to medium sized area of shower and thunderstorm activity has been occurring.
However, given that the total precipitable water imagery is showing rotation,
it is likely that showers and storms will increase over the next 24 to 36
hours. Most of the models are keeping Disturbance 1 below tropical storm force
for the next 72 hours. Although It could become a tropical depression prior to
reaching Puerto Rico, significant strengthening appears unlikely until it moves
north of Hispaniola on Wednesday.

The
system is expected to move through the northern Leeward Islands on Sunday. It
will move through the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Thereafter, a
track toward the Turks and Caicos is expected. A northward turn is likely on
Wednesday. However, it is likely that the system will slow down significantly
for a couple of days during the middle of next week.

Expected Impacts Onshore

The Virgin Islands: The main impact will be rainfall. The heaviest
rains are expected to be located to the north of the track. The heaviest rains
should pass to the north of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean. However,
there is a decent chance that minor flooding could occur for the Virgin
Islands.

Southeast Bahamas/Turks
and Caicos: 
Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the middle to latter part of next week.

Expected Impacts
Offshore

Tropical storm force
winds are possible for the waters near the southeastern Bahamas in the middle
to latter part of next week.

 Residents are encouraged
to monitor the progress of Disturbance 1 as moves further east. The Department
of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the system and provide
updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe
for updates.