Disturbance 1 is near 9.5N, 28.5W (approximately 2478 miles from the VI) and is moving to the west near 20 mph. The system has become better organized over the last 24 hours. It has a high (80 percent) chance of developing as it tracks westward. There continues to be much uncertainty regarding the long range track. Some of the model guidance favors a stronger and farther north system that passes north of the Caribbean in about 5-6 days. However, dry air ahead of the system may keep it weaker and farther south. If the system were to reach the eastern Caribbean, it would do so in about 6 days. Residents are encouraged to monitor the system as there is a level of uncertainty concerning development and location of impact.
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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.