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DISTURBANCE 1 SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGHTENING BUT NOT A THREAT TO THE BVI

DISTURBANCE 1 SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGHTENING BUT NOT A THREAT TO THE BVI

May 7, 2015854Views

A
reconnaissance plane investigated Disturbance 1(Invest 90L) earlier today. The
plane found strong winds well northwest through northeast of the low-level
centre. As a result, forecasters have increased the sustained winds up to 45
mph. Winds near the centre are considerably lighter. The plane also found that
the system lacks the structure to be classified as a tropical or subtropical
storm. Any increase in organisation would likely result in the disturbance
being classified as a subtropical or tropical storm.

The
latest forecast keeps the centre nearly stationary for the next day or two,
with the centre moving ashore on the South Carolina coast on Sunday morning.
The winds will likely peak tonight or tomorrow, with some
weakening expected as it nears the coast. Once inland, it will quickly weaken,
and then track north-eastward across central or eastern North Carolina as a
weak, closed low pressure area or possibly an open trough. Either way, the
primary impact will be locally heavy rainfall across coastal sections of both
South and North Carolina. There is a slight risk of tropical storm conditions
along the immediate coast over the next 48 hours, but most of the tropical
storm force winds will remain offshore.

If
the system were to develop it would become the first name storm for the 2015
Atlantic Hurricane Season. The disturbance is not a threat to the British
Virgin Islands. However residents are reminded make preparations for the
upcoming season.