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DISTURBANCE 1 STILL BEING AFFECTED BY DRY AIR

DISTURBANCE 1 STILL BEING AFFECTED BY DRY AIR

July 30, 2005992Views

Dry air
continues to affect Disturbance 1. Showers and thunderstorms have not changed
overnight. The shower activity continues to be rather weak and sparse in
coverage. It is becoming more likely that Disturbance 1 will not be able to break
free from the dry air over the next few days. The risk of significant impacts
occurring for the Caribbean and elsewhere due to Disturbance 1 continues to
decrease.

Forecasters have not made any changes to the
track. They expect the centre of the disturbance to move over the northeastern
Caribbean early Saturday. The weak cyclone or disturbance should approach the
eastern Bahamas on Monday. Most models still indicate that a trough will turn
the system northeastward to the east of the U.S. East Coast. Forecasters
continue to stick with this scenario.

At 8:00 a.m., Disturbance 1 was 1055 miles
east-southeast of Barbados, moving westerly at 16 miles per hour.

Expected impact in the British Virgin Islands would
be on
Saturday night and Sunday – squalls with gusts to tropical storm
force are possible.

 

In the
Lesser Antilles, north of 14N Latitude, squalls with gusts to tropical storm
force are possible near and to the north of the centre Friday night and
Saturday. Significant impacts are becoming less likely. Rains may be enough to
cause a few areas of minor flooding, but the heavy rain risk appears to be
decreasing as well.

The
atmosphere over the Northeastern Caribbean will become a bit more unstable as a
series of troughs move over the area for the next three days and the
tropical disturbance by Saturday.

Therefore,
on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, there is a good chance of some cloudy
spells and some passing showers developing over the islands. By Saturday,
the Leeward Islands could have a significant amount of showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds as the tropical disturbance gets
closer to the area.

A
light to moderate Easterly to East Southeasterly breeze will persist
across the islands for the next three days. Speeds will range between six
and twelve knots. However, by Saturday, near gale, gale force or tropical
storm conditions could enter the area.

Seas:
Normal conditions will prevail in the waters around the islands for the
next three days with heights between four and five feet. However, by
Saturday, seas could become dangerous and hazardous as the tropical
disturbance enters or moves close to the area.

 

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.