Current Position: 14.3N/29.9W
Geographic Reference: 410 miles
west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands
Our Estimated Max Winds: 50 mph
Movement: West-northwestward at
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical
Storm Force Winds: 45 miles
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002Mb
Tropical Disturbance 24/Invest 98L
which was first upgraded to Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 a.m. EDT by the
National Weather Service, has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm
At 11:00 a.m.,
the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near Latitude 14.3 North and
Longitude 29.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph and
this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50
mph with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today
followed by gradual weakening on Thursday as Dorian moves over cooler water.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 45 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb.
Forecasters have projected that Dorian
would pass about 100 miles north of the Northern Leeward and Virgin Islands
over the weekend. Beyond then, it could continue to the west or west-northwest
through the Bahamas and toward Southern Florida or the Florida Straits. There
is also a chance it could turn northward, and remain east of Florida and the
Gulf of Mexico.
Dorian is currently in a region
favourable for strengthening, and forecasters think the maximum sustained winds
will increase to about 65 mph over the next 24 hours. By Friday, conditions
will become less favourable, and Dorian could weaken some before passing north
of the North-Eastern Caribbean Sea this weekend. Once near the Bahamas,
forecasters do not have much confidence in the intensity forecast. Forecasters
have not ruled out Dorian reaching hurricane strength over the next 24-48 hours
before encountering less favourable conditions, but the chances remain low.
It is important to note that Dorian
is quite small in size. The diameter of its core winds is only 75 miles, though
a feeder band to the south and southwest extends outward another 70 miles or
so. As a small storm, its impact on the northeast Caribbean would be minimal as
long as it passes 50 or more miles to the north of the islands.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Northern Leeward Islands, Virgin
Wind: Tropical storm force
winds may extend 50 miles to the south of the centre and 60 miles to the north
of the centre on Sunday.
Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches of rain
is possible Sunday through early Monday. These rains may cause localized
flooding and mudslides.
Storm Surge: No surge expected
as the centre should pass north of the islands.
Disclaimer: The Department of
Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The
Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of
professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information.
This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.