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DISTURBANCE 34 UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

DISTURBANCE 34 UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

August 9, 2012791Views

Current Location: 13.7N/45.3W

Geographic Reference: 945 miles
East of Barbados

Movement: West at 22
mph

Organizational Trend: Steady

Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 (0 size
/ 1 intensity)

Max Predicted Hurricane Severity
Index: 
3 (1 size / 2 intensity)

Changes From the Previous
Forecast

There are no significant changes.

Forecast

Tropical Depression Seven
continues quickly to the west. This general track is expected to continue for
the next several days due to a strong ridge of high pressure north of the
system. The forecast is similar to the previous and brings the system through
the northern Windward or southern Leeward Islands late Saturday or early
Sunday.

There has been little change with the depression this evening.
Showers and storms are not persisting near the center. Environmental conditions
are expected to only be marginal for development. It appears as if low level
winds will be unfavorable for intensification. Therefore, only slight
intensification is forecast. An alternative scenario is for the system to
degenerate into a tropical wave. This is the solution by nearly all of the
dynamical model guidance.

Expected Impacts on Land

Windward and Southern Leeward
Islands: 
Gusty wind and heavy rainfall are possible by Saturday afternoon,
continuing through Sunday morning as the center passes.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Trinidad: Heaviest
squalls and any tropical storm conditions should pass to the north over the
weekend.

Eastern Caribbean: Squalls
with tropical storm force winds and high waves are possible Saturday
afternoon/evening through Sunday night.

 

In the vicinity of the African Coast

A well-defined
disturbance, labeled as Disturbance 35, is located near 13.3N/13.7W, or near
the Gambia/Senegal border in West Africa. It is moving to the west at 10-15 mph
and should emerge off the coast of Africa within the next 18-24 hours. There is
model support for the development of this system in the eastern Atlantic. If
development does occur, it is only likely to impact the Cape Verde Islands in
the short term. It should gain enough latitude to clear the islands of the
northeastern Caribbean with minimal impacts in the long term.

 

At present
neither system pose a threat to the Virgin Islands however the forecasted
tracks are in the early stages and both systems should still be monitored. The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will like to remind the general public
that we are heading into the active part of the hurricane season and if
preparations have not been made they are encouraged to do so. Please visit the
DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com to receive
future updates.

 

Disclaimer: The Department of
Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The
Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of
professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information.
This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.