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DISTURBANCE 37 BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED

DISTURBANCE 37 BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED

August 18, 20121226Views

Current Location: 13.2N
32.3W

Geographic Reference: 1920 miles
east of St. Lucia

Movement: West-northwest
at 22 mph

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Chance of Development Within 48
Hours: 
60 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48
Hours: 
90 percent

Changes from Our Previous
Forecast

Forecasters are now thinking the
disturbance will move through the Lesser Antilles early Thursday morning
instead of Thursday afternoon. Forecasters have also increased the chance of
development within the next 48 hours from 50 percent to 60 percent.

Forecast

Disturbance 37 is expected to
move quickly to the west during the next 3 to 4 days. On this track, the
disturbance is now forecast to move through the Leeward and Windward Islands
early Thursday morning instead of Thursday afternoon. Thereafter, a track
through the eastern Caribbean appears the most likely. The system is likely to
pass south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday. However, there is a
chance it could track a little north of the forecast track.

The disturbance is slowly becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain favorable for development through the next
several days. Therefore, the system has a 60 percent chance of becoming a
tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance before
reaching the Caribbean. If the system becomes a cyclone, there may not be
anything to prevent it from becoming a hurricane. Forecasters estimate the
chance of the system becoming a hurricane prior to reaching the Caribbean to be
65 percent.

Based on the present forecast it is very likely the system can
have an effect on the Virgin Islands in the next few days. Residents should if
they have not done so, make all preparations in the event Disturbance 37 gains
hurricane status and affects the territory.

 The Department of Disaster
Management is monitoring the system and will provide updates when necessary.
Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for
future updates.

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.