August 19, 20121374Views

Current Location: 14.5N

Geographic Reference: 1600 miles
east of Martinique

Movement: West at 23

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Chance of Development Within 48
70 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48
90 percent

Changes from Our Previous

Forecasters are now estimating
the chance of the disturbance becoming a hurricane prior to reaching the
Caribbean to be 50 percent. This is below the 65 percent they were previously


Disturbance 37 is moving in a
rapid westward motion. Forecasters expect this track to continue, bringing the
system through the Lesser Antilles late Wednesday or early Thursday. By Friday,
they are forecasting the system to be south of Puerto Rico.

The disturbance remains broad, though it continues to slowly
organize. Forecasters continue to estimate the chance of the system becoming a
tropical cyclone to be 70 percent within the next 48 hours and 90 percent prior
to reaching the Lesser Antilles. However, there may be some slight westerly
wind shear prior to reaching the Caribbean. Therefore, forecasters are now
estimating the chance of the system becoming a hurricane prior to reaching the
Caribbean to be 50 percent. This is down from 65 percent in the previous
forecast. There is a greater chance of the system becoming a hurricane in the
eastern Caribbean.

Presently forecasts have the system passing south of Puerto Rico however,
as the system progress and develop certain changes, there is a probability it
can shift further north. Residents are urged to monitor the situation and
should make all preparations in the event the system affects the territory. The
Atlantic is heating up and more waves are forecast to move off the African

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles including St.
The first squalls from the system are not expected to occur until
Wednesday morning.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: The first
impacts are not expected until Wednesday.

 The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is monitoring the situation and will provide updates where necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe for updates.

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.