August 20, 20121461Views

Current Location: 15.4N

Geographic Reference: 730 miles
east of Dominica

Movement: West 23

Max Winds: 35 mph
gusting to 45 mph

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Forecast Confidence: Average

Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 (0 size
/ 1 intensity)

Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity
3 (1 size / 3 intensity)

Changes from Previous Forecast

Forecasters indicate that
Disturbance 37 will move through the northern Windward and southern Leeward
Islands as a weak tropical storm with winds of 40 to 45 mph. In addition, the
system is forecast to move through the Islands Wednesday morning instead of
around midday.


Evening satellite imagery
indicates that showers and storms are increasing a little in association with
Disturbance 37. The surface circulation remains well defined. Therefore, forecasters
are now issuing full advisories on the system as it is likely a tropical
depression. The National Hurricane Center is likely to officially classify the
system as such tomorrow morning.

There is no significant change to the track forecast, except for a
slight acceleration of the forecast forward motion. A track mainly to the west
is likely during the next 2 to 3 days at a rapid rate of speed. This is due to
a ridge of high pressure north of the system. Thereafter, a slowing, and a
gradual turn to the northwest is forecast. On this track, the system is
expected to move through the northern Windward or southern Leeward Islands
early Wednesday morning. It is then forecast to track south of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti on Friday. By Saturday evening, it is forecast to be over
central Cuba.

Environmental conditions remain marginal for further development.
While upper winds are quite favorable, the low level winds and proximity of
dry, stable air are unfavorable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is
forecast during the next couple of days. Winds are forecast to increase to 50
mph by this time Wednesday evening. Thereafter, no change in intensity is
indicated due to the inherent uncertainty in the track forecast. Any deviation
to the north of the track would take the system over Hispaniola and cause
significant weakening. In addition, there may be an increase in wind shear
after 3 days.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles including St.
The first squalls from the system are likely to move through the
area late Tuesday and last through late Wednesday. Tropical storm force winds
and heavy rain are possible for the Leeward Islands, from Dominica through
Anguilla. In Martinique and St. Lucia, winds are likely to remain well below
tropical storm intensity. However, some squalls may occur Wednesday through
early Thursday with gusts to 50 mph. The southernmost squalls may extend as far
south as Trinidad.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Occasional
heavy squalls are expected to begin Wednesday afternoon and continue into
Thursday morning. Wind gusts of 50 mph to 60 mph possible in the heavier

Dominican Republic: Tropical
Storm conditions are possible for the southern coast Friday morning and early
afternoon. Heavy rainfall is likely throughout the island of Hispaniola.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Tropical
storm force winds are possible for the eastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and
Thursday. Wind gusts up to 65 mph will be possible in the heavier squalls.

 The Department of Disaster
Management is monitoring the current system and will provide updates when
necessary. Residents are encouraged to make the necessary preparations in the event
the system poses a greater risk and in addition to the Atlantic becoming very
active. Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe for
future updates.

Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.