October 12, 20121327Views

Current Location: 14.0N/61.2W

Geographic Reference: 12 miles west of
St. Lucia

Movement: Northwest at 13 mph

Max Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly

Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 60 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 80 percent

Previous Forecast

There are no significant changes.


Strong wind shear continues to impact this system, with the low
level center west of the associated squalls. This wind shear should prevent any
rapid organization over at least the next 24-36 hours as the disturbance tracks
northwestward across the eastern Caribbean. The center will pass near the
Virgin Islands and just east of Puerto Rico on Saturday. A more northward track
is expected after leaving the Caribbean Sea. This system should stay well east
of the Bahamas and the East Coast of the U.S. However, there could be an impact
in Newfoundland in 7-8 days.

The wind shear in the area
will decrease after about 36 hours. There is a good chance that the disturbance
could become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm just before exiting
the Caribbean Sea. It is likely to become a tropical storm once it is north of
the Caribbean on Sunday. By the time it reaches Newfoundland late next week it
will most likely be transitioning to an extratropical storm.

Regardless of whether or not
the disturbance becomes a depression or a tropical storm in the Caribbean, the
effects across the islands will be just about the same. All of the islands from
Trinidad northward through the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
will see occasional heavy squalls from today through Saturday evening. These
squalls will result in sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts of 50 mph
to 60 mph along with heavy rainfall.

Expected Impacts on Land

Windward and Leeward Islands, including St. Lucia: Thunderstorms will continue to impact the southern and central
Windward Islands through today. Sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts
to 60 mph can be expected, along with rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches.

Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Northern Lesser Antilles: Squalls will begin to impact the region by late today and continue
through Saturday. Winds of 30 mph to 45 mph are possible, along with gusts to
60 mph. Rainfall amounts may average 3-6 inches, though higher amounts will be
possible in some areas.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Offshore St. Lucia: Sustained winds
of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in squalls are possible through

Offshore Trinidad: Sustained winds
of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in squalls are possible today.


Residents should pay close
attention to this system as it has the potential of being a Tropical Storm when
it approaches or pass close to the territory.


The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is currently
monitoring the system and will provide updates accordingly. Please visit the
DDM’s website at and subscribe for future updates.


Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.