At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday evening.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
and Culebra.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Guadeloupe
* St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Sint Maarten
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in elsewhere in the northeastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. Additional watches or warnings could be required later this morning.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward Islands. For Puerto Rico, 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, is expected. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf
Elsewhere in the Caribbean, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday morning:
Windward Islands… 1 to 4 inches
Eastern Hispaniola… 2 to 4 inches
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
beginning late tonight or Tuesday.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level for the eastern coast of Puerto Rico from San Juan to Guayama, including the islands of Culebra and Vieques and in the U.S. Virgin Islands, including St. Thomas, St. John, and St. Croix.
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the British Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by the system will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
The Virgin Islands will continue to monitor this cyclone as we have been placed under a Tropical Storm Watch.
Residents should continue to closely monitor this system and work to complete any seasonal preparations in case this system develops into a threat for the Virgin Islands
For more information, see the link below: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/MIATCPAT5+shtml/112335.shtml
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not a Meteorological Office. Information shared by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources contracted by the Department. This information should be used as a guide for anyone who has an interest in local weather conditions. By no means can DDM or the Government of the Virgin Islands be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision, which may result in the loss of finances, property or life
