September 2, 2020972Views

2nd September 2020 – Two tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic, Nana and Omar. Neither system is a threat to the British Virgin Islands. Nana is just east of Belize and may impact that country as a hurricane while tropical storm Omar meanders east of the United States with no threat to land. Both tropical storms like previous have continued to break records as they have formed earlier than typically expected. Dr. Phillip Kloztback successor of the late Dr. William Gray of the Colorado State University stated that the Atlantic hurricane season has now broken records for the earliest forming C,E,F,G,H,I,J,K,L,M,N and O storms.

Disturbance 1 is along 24W and currently relatively stationary. An overall west to west-northwest motion is expected in the coming days. The system exhibits robust large-scale rotation and plentiful tropical moisture. Heavy thunderstorm activity is also robust though disorganized. Atmospheric conditions are favorable and model guidance is at least moderately supportive of development. Therefore, forecasters think development chances are increasing. It is too early to determine if the system will track far enough south to impact the northeastern Caribbean or curve north before being able to reach the islands. The chance of development is 60 percent in a 5 day period.

Disturbance 2 is a small area of low pressure near 13N, 36W. The system’s small size results in lower forecast confidence in both the track and intensity. It is possible that Disturbance 1 could either absorb 2 or cause it stall as 1 passes to the north in several days. Though there is very little model data support for development, forecasters think the chance of development has increased due to an increase in thunderstorms and atmospheric rotation. The chance of development is 30 percent.

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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.