5th October 2010 – 5PM – The Antigua Meteorological Service has extended the Flash Flood Warning for the Virgin Islands until 10PM. Flash Flood is defined as a sudden, violent flood after a heavy rain. A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring in the warned area. A flash flood watch remains in effect until Wednesday afternoon.
At -5PM Surface observations and visible satellite imagery reveal the center of Tropical Disturbance 57 to be located near 20.8N/65.9W, or about 160 miles north of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Movement is to the northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds in the stronger squalls are in the 20-25 mph range. Locally heavy rain is occurring from Puerto Rico eastward across the Leeward Islands.
Forecasters take the disturbance generally on northwestward track over the next 36 hours. During this time the disturbance could become organized enough to be classified as a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. By late Thursday or early Friday, an approaching cold front will force it to make a sharp turn to the north and northeast.
The driving force behind this disturbance is an upper-level low pressure area, located just west of the center. This makes it a subtropical system, with the strongest winds and heaviest rain located well away from the center, instead of near the center like a purely tropical system. As a result, most of the wind and rain will remain well east and southeast of the surface center, with a heavy rain threat remaining in place for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands for another 24 to 36 hours. The strongest squalls could produce wind gusts up to 40 or 45 mph.
Residents and visitors are reminded to continue to EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION as some roads have become impassable or dangerous to drive on. If driving becomes necessary, please be extremely careful when doing so.
DDM will continue to monitor this system and provide releases as necessary. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at www.bviddm.com for continuously updated information.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.