August 3, 2011895Views

Current Location: 16.5N/68.3W

Geographic Reference: 175 miles (275 km) southeast of Santo Domingo,
Dominican Republic

Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph

Max Winds: 45 mph


Emily continues moving west-northwest, slightly faster than previously. A
gradual turn to the northwest is expected during the next 12-24 hours due to a
weakness in the ridge of high pressure north of the storm. Emily is also
expected to slow some once the turn begins. Emily is expected to make landfall
in the Dominican Republic, to the west of Santo Domingo tonight and move into
Haiti by tomorrow morning. Thereafter, a turn to the north and northeast is
expected. On this track, the center is expected to move through the northwest
Bahamas and slightly east of southern Florida. However, any shift to the west
could bring the center to the Florida coast. The confidence in the track
forecast remains average.

Emily is very poorly organized and there are some questions if a surface
circulation exists. The reconnaissance aircraft has found a weak circulation at
an altitude of 5,000 feet. Westerly wind shear continues to affect Emily and is
expected to do so until landfall tonight. Therefore, only very slight
intensification or even little change in intensity is expected before landfall.
Emily is expected to weaken to a depression while over Hispaniola. However,
once it emerges into the Atlantic, environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for reintensification. Emily is still forecast to become a very
strong tropical storm while moving through the Bahamas and east of Florida.
There is a 45 percent chance Emily could become a hurricane as it moves east of
Florida. The confidence in the intensity forecast remains below average.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: Most of the heavy rainfall has cleared the area.
However, occassional squalls will be possible during the morning hours.

U.S./British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: The outermost squalls are
moving over eastern Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. These are expected to
persist across the region through late today. Rainfall up to 2-4 inches will be
possible, with higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico.
Tropical storm conditions should remain to the south of the area. Due to the
abundance moisture associated with the system and the potential for the outer rain
bands to affect the territory, the Antigua Met Office has extended the Flash
Flood Watch until 12PM.

Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo area): Squalls may reach the area by
this afternoon. Rainfall up to 5-10 inches will be possible from Wednesday
through Thursday. Flooding and mudslides are likely.

Turks and Caicos: Squalls should reach the islands by Thursday
afternoon or evening. Rainfall totals of 4-8 inches will be possible.

Northern Bahamas: Squalls will move over the area by Friday afternoon.
Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches will be possible through Saturday evening.
Tropical storm conditions will be likely from Friday afternoon through late
Saturday morning.

Southern Florida Peninsula: Squalls are expected to reach the southern
peninsula by late afternoon or early evening on Friday. The heaviest squalls
will probably pass offshore, but the southeastern peninsula could receive 2-5
inches of rainfall as Emily passes on Saturday morning.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean Sea: Southeasterly winds near 20-25 mph are expected
this morning with seas 6-8 feet. Conditions will slowly improve today as Emily
moves off to the west.


The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the
weather conditions and provide updates accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s
website at and subscribe to their notification link to receive further

Disclaimer:The Department of Disaster
Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information
disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional
sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This
information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.