August 2, 20111067Views

Current Location: 15.8N/65.4W

Geographic Reference: 185 miles
south-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Movement: West at 12 mph

Max Winds: 50 mph

Central Minimum Pressure: 1005MB


Emily continues moving westward,
but a shift to the west-northwest should occur over the next 12-24 hours. This
will take Emily over eastern Haiti and extreme eastern Cuba on Thursday and
into the western Bahamas on Friday. Model guidance continues to shift eastward
toward the central Bahamas on Saturday. Forecasters have adjusted the northern
part of their track eastward as well, but initial track remains a little to the
west of most guidance. If the eastward trend in model guidance continues, forecasters
may be adjusting their track farther to the east, meaning less of a threat to
the Florida Peninsula. The confidence in the forecast track remains below

Forecasters think that Emily will
slowly strengthen as it tracks across the Caribbean Sea over the next 24-30
hours. However, there remains only a slight chance that Emily could become a
hurricane in the Caribbean. Weakening should occur as the system moves over Haiti
and eastern Cuba, but re-strengthening should occur as Emily moves away from
Cuba and toward the Bahamas. Forecasters are forecasting Emily to be a strong
tropical storm when it moves over the northwest Bahamas late Friday and
Saturday. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains low.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: Periods of heavy
rain and gusty winds will gradually diminish through this evening. An
additional 1-2 inches of rain are possible.

U.S./British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico: The outermost squalls will move across the region through late
Wednesday. Rainfall up to 2-4 inches will be possible, with higher amounts
possible in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions
should remain to the south of the area. Since the possibility of heavy showers
exists, the Antigua Meteorological Office has left a Flash Flood Watch in place
for the Virgin Islands until 6AM tomorrow.

Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo
area): Squalls may reach the area by Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall up to 4-8
inches will be possible from Wednesday through Thursday. Flooding and mudslides
are likely.

Turks and Caicos: Squalls should
reach the islands by Thursday afternoon or evening. Rainfall totals of 4-8
inches will be possible.

Northern Bahamas: Squalls will
move over the area by Friday afternoon. Rainfall totals of 5-10 inches will be
possible through Saturday evening. Tropical storm conditions likely from Friday
afternoon through late Saturday morning.

Southern Florida Peninsula: Squalls
reaching the southern peninsula by late afternoon or early evening on Friday.
Heaviest squalls will probably pass offshore, but the southeastern peninsula
could receive 2-5 inches of rainfall as Emily passes on Saturday morning.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean Sea: Southeasterly
winds near 25 mph this afternoon, with seas 6-8 feet. Conditions will slowly
improve tonight and tomorrow as Emily moves off to the west.


The Department of
Disaster Management (DDM) will continue to monitor the weather conditions and
provide updates accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe to their notification link to receive further

Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.