LOCATION: 15.5 degrees North, 52.4 degrees West
DISTANCE: ABOUT 813 MILES EAST SOUTH EAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
MOVEMENT: WEST- NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 MB
Hurricane Danny continues to weaken and has been downgraded to Category 1. A reconnaissance aircraft is currently on its way to Danny and more details on its current intensity are expected later this afternoon.
At 2:00 p.m., the centre of Hurricane Danny was located near latitude 15.5 degrees north, longitude 52.4 degrees west or about 813 east-southeast of the BVI. Danny is moving toward the west near 12 miles per hour (mph). A turn to the west with increased forward speed is expected today.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb.
Hurricane force winds extend outward 15 miles from the centre while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.
The Antigua & Barbuda Meteorological Services which provides forecasts for the BVI has indicated that a tropical storm watch may be issued for the BVI later today and advised that residents should stand ready to fully execute their storm plans to protect life and property. Watches are already in effect for Anguilla, Antigua/Barbuda, Montserrat and St.Kitts/Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten/St.Martin, Guadeloupe and St. Barthelemy.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Expected Impacts on Land
Danny is forecast to move through the northern Caribbean as a strong tropical storm next Monday through Wednesday. Heavy rains and strong winds are likely.
Forecasters at Antigua Met reveal that Hurricane Danny is moving into a hostile upper-level wind environment, thus the weakening trend is likely to continue and the system could be further downgraded to a tropical storm by Sunday before reaching the islands on Monday.
On its present track, Hurricane Danny is expected to be near or over the BVI late Monday and could impact the Territory with sustained winds of around 50 mph. Peak gusts of around 70 mph are possible.
Antigua Met advises that moderate flooding could occur and a flood watch or warning may be required for Monday.
Large battering waves are expected during the passage of Hurricane Danny. Seas will peak near 12 feet. Mariners will need to seek safe anchorage for their vessels.
Rainfall
The first squalls are likely to reach the area on Monday afternoon. General rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected through Tuesday afternoon. Higher amounts are likely in the mountains. Widespread minor flooding is likely, with some areas of moderate flooding possible. Some landslides are possible. Road conditions could deteriorate and motorists should exercise caution.
Residents of the British Virgin Islands are advised to monitor the system as it progresses and keep abreast of updates issued by the Department of Disaster Management.
Visit the DDM website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for updates, visit our Facebook page at www.facebook.com/bvi.ddm or follow us on Twitter at www.twitter.com/BVIDDM.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
