August 22, 20121710Views

Current Location: 15.8N 59.3W

Geographic Reference: 140 miles east of Guadeloupe

Movement: West at 21 mph

Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly Increasing

Forecast Confidence: Average

Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size / 2 intensity)

Peak Forecast Hurricane Severity Index: 11 (5 size / 6 intensity)

 Previous Forecast

No significant changes.


Isaac continues to track along the previous forecast. The center should cross into the eastern Caribbean this afternoon and across the northeast Caribbean tomorrow, making landfall in the southwestern Dominican Republic on Friday morning. Isaac should cross the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba over the weekend, emerging into the Florida Straits Sunday evening. It is still too early to tell if Isaac will track west of the Florida Peninsula, over the Peninsula, or east of Florida. Model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the past hour, and forecasters track is close to the center of the model guidance.

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Isaac’s strongest squalls remain south and west of the center, indicating that Isaac continues to experience northeasterly wind shear. This wind shear will limit intensification as the center crosses into the Caribbean this afternoon. Wind shear should diminish in the eastern Caribbean, allowing Isaac to reach hurricane strength prior to reaching the Dominican Republic Friday morning. Interaction with the Dominican Republic and eastern Cuba will weaken Isaac to a tropical storm. Once the center emerges into the Florida Straits Sunday evening, conditions are favorable for Isaac to regain hurricane strength prior to reaching south Florida on Monday morning.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles including St. Lucia: Heavy squalls are moving through the area now. These squalls will likely last through Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts to 65 mph and heavy rain are likely for the Leeward Islands, from Guadeloupe through Anguilla. In Dominica, Martinique and St. Lucia, winds are likely to remain below tropical storm intensity. However, some squalls may occur today through Thursday afternoon with gusts to 50 mph. The southernmost squalls may extend as far south as Trinidad.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Occasional heavy squalls are expected to begin late this evening and continue through late Thursday or early Friday. Wind gusts of 60 mph to 70 mph possible in the heavier squalls.

Dominican Republic: Hurricane conditions are likely for the southern coast Friday morning and afternoon. Heavy rainfall, flooding, and mudslides are likely throughout the island of Hispaniola.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Tropical storm force winds are likely for the eastern Caribbean Sea this evening through Thursday. Wind gusts up to 70 mph will be possible in the heavier squalls.


Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.