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OPHELIA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED

OPHELIA BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED

September 27, 2011661Views

Current Location: 18.5N/59.5W

Geographic Reference: 160 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands

Movement: Nearly stationary

Maximum Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph

Organizational Trend: Steadily strengthening

Chance of redevelopment within next 48 hours: 80
percent

Forecast Track Confidence: Below Average, due to
the poor structure of the system.

Forecasters have increased Ophelia’s chance of
redevelopment into a tropical storm to 80 percent. Forecasters have also
shifted their track eastward beyond 48 hours.

 

Forecast:

The remnants of Ophelia continue
to become better organized today. Showers and thunderstorms are becoming more
consolidated around a low level center. There is a very good chance this system
will be upgraded back to a depression possibly a tropical storm by this
afternoon or evening. Gradual strengthening is expected and this system could
become a hurricane by this weekend.

 

The Antigua Meteorological Service has indicated that the
remnants of Ophelia are producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Surface and satellite observations indicate
that the system has an 80 percent chance of regenerating into a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours.  There
is a high chance of locally heavy to severe rains occurring over portions of
the Leeward and Southern Windward Islands today through Wednesday.

 

 The system being
in such close proximity to the Islands requires careful monitoring for further development.
Flash flood watches and warnings might become necessary for some of the Islands
later today.

Residents
and Visitors should monitor the progress of Ophelia for any sudden change in strength
and its path. The system at present is almost stationary and gaining strength. Be
on the alert for any sudden issuance of watches or warnings as it relates to this
system.  


The Department of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the weather conditions and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to the notification link to receive further updates.


Disclaimer: The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.