1st April –
Predictions released today by the Colorado State University’s leading
forecaster, Professor William Gray, calls for an above-average probability of
US and Caribbean major hurricane landfall for 2011. This is due to the warming
of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that
the current El Niño will weaken.
estimated that this hurricane season will have about 9
hurricanes, 17 named storms, and 5 major hurricanes developing to at least
Category 3 strength, or higher.
Professor Gray, who is beginning his 28th
year forecasting hurricanes at Colorado State University said, “We expect
current moderate El Niño conditions to transition to neutral conditions by this
year’s hurricane season. The predicted weakening of El Niño conditions combined
with a very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic are the primary
reasons why we are increasing our forecast. We believe that these two features
will lead to favorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions for hurricane
formation and intensification. This active cycle is expected to continue for another
decade or two.”
Virgin Islanders are reminded to begin
preparing early for the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season. General preparedness tips can be found on the
DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com or interested
persons are welcome to visit our office at #3 Wailing Road, McNamara for more
The North Atlantic Hurricane Season runs
from June 1 through November 30.
El Nino – A change in Pacific currents: a
periodic change in the currents of the Pacific Ocean that occurs every five to
eight years and brings unusually warm water to the coast of northern South
America. It often leads to severe climate disruption to countries in and
beside the Pacific.
It is better to prepare and prevent rather than