July 29, 2011912Views

Name: Tropical Disturbance 23

Current Location: 9.3N/40.7W

Geographic Reference: 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Lesser Antilles.

Movement: West at 12 mph

Max Winds: 20 to 25 mph

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Forecast Track Confidence: Average

Changes to previous Forecast

This is our first forecast on this system.


Satellite imagery indicates Disturbance 23 has
become better organized this morning. Several computer models indicate it
will strengthen over the next few days and could become a tropical storm or
hurricane before reaching the eastern Caribbean Sea early next week. There
is some dry air in its path that could hamper development, but overall
conditions appear favorable and forecasters think there is a 50 to 60
percent chance it could become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser
Antilles on Monday. Forecasters’ confidence in the intensity forecast is
about average.

Forecasters expect Disturbance 23 to track in
a west-northwest direction over the next few days, entering the eastern or
northeastern Caribbean Sea as early as Monday morning. Some guidance
indicates a northward turn across Hispaniola and into the Bahamas on
Wednesday or Thursday. It could also continue tracking west-northwest and
remain in the Caribbean Sea

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: Squalls could reach the
Islands by midday Sunday with rain accumulations of 5-10 inches possible.
Tropical storm or hurricane force winds will be possible by late Sunday or
early Monday.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean Sea: Widespread squalls are
possible beginning Sunday afternoon, with deteriorating conditions expected
through early Tuesday.


Presently the system is no threat to the
Virgin Islands however, Residents should monitor the system in the event
the Disturbance develops and poses a threat to the territory. The
Department of Disaster Management will continue to monitor the system and
post updates when necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe to our notification link for further updates.

Disclaimer:The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not
an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the
Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or
contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to
be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions.
By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone
who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in
justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances,
property or life.