6th October 2010 – 5PM – A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect for the Virgin Islands until 8PM tonight. A Flash Flood Warning is issued when a flash flood is imminent or occurring in the warned area. A flash flood is a sudden, violent flood after a heavy rain. A flash flood watch remains in effect until Wednesday afternoon.
At 500 pm Tropical Disturbance was upgraded to subtropical storm Otto. The center of Otto was located near latitude 23.2 north longitude 68.3 west. The storm is moving toward the north near 5 mph and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast and the northeast accompanied by an increase in forward speed are forecast on Thursday. On the forecast track Otto is expected to remain well to the east of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands.
Maximum sustained winds recently reported by an air force reserve reconnaissance aircraft are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Otto could transition into a tropical storm by Thursday and then become a hurricane by Thursday night or Friday morning. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The minimum central pressure recently reported by reconnaissance Aircraft is 990mb.
While the center of this system is not expected to impact any land areas, it continues to produce widespread heavy rainfall across much of the northeastern Caribbean Sea. Additional heavy rain remains likely over the next day or two. The U.S. and British Virgin Islands can expect 2 to 4 inches more through tomorrow, with isolated totals as high as 8 inches. Additional periods of heavy rain will still be possible on Friday and early Saturday but it should become more isolated in nature. Flooding will continue to remain the greatest hazard from Otto.
So far the DDM has recorded 16 inches of rain since Tuesday afternoon at its station at MacNamara.
DDM will continue to monitor this system and provide releases as necessary. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at www.bviddm.com for continuously updated information.