9TH September 2020 – The National Hurricane Centre is monitoring 4 tropical systems in the Atlantic. Disturbance 1, Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Depression Rene which is expected to regain strength is not a threat to the British Virgin Islands however we will continue to monitor the storm and depression as it progresses. Disturbance 2 however will move off the west coast of Africa in a day or two and is expected to develop quickly when this occurs. The disturbance based on current model forecasts is expected to move further west than the other two systems. Residents should continue to monitor disturbance two closely as it progresses.
Tropical Storm Paulette is located 1100 miles to the east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving to the west at 8 mph. Maximum winds are near 60 mph. Paulette is expected to begin tracking to the west-northwest and will continue this motion through Friday, then turn to the northwest Saturday into Sunday. It may turn to the north early next week as it makes its closest approach to Bermuda as a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.
Tropical Depression Rene is located 330 miles to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands this morning. Maximum winds are near 35 mph. It is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. Rene will track to the northwest across the eastern Atlantic through Saturday. It is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday, then weaken Saturday into Sunday as it encounters less favorable conditions. It could meander over the eastern Atlantic early next week due to weakening steering currents.
Disturbance 2 is centered near eastern Guinea near 12N, 10W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 15 mph. Disturbance 2 will likely emerge off of the coast of Africa near Guinea by Thursday. This system may develop into a tropical depression as it passes just south of the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday into Saturday. Afterward, it will track to the west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic. There are early indications from most model guidance that this disturbance will pass well to the northeast of the northeastern Caribbean in about 9 to 10 days from now however, these conditions can change so we will continue monitoring. There is an 80 percent chance that the system will develop over the next 5 days.
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Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.