Current Position: 7.8N and
Geographic Reference: 1285 miles
east-southeast of Barbados
Movement: West at 25
Organizational Trend: Steady
Chance of Development Within 48
hours: 50 percent
Forecast Confidence: Average
There are no major changes.
Disturbance 15 (Invest 95L) does
show signs of organization, but there does not appear to be well-defined
low-level center at this time. The formation of a closed low-level center is a
necessary requirement to become a tropical depression. Forecasters think there
is about a 50 percent chance that this system could become a tropical
depression or a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
If this system does not develop before reaching the Caribbean Sea it may have
difficulty developing. Conditions in the Caribbean Sea are expected to be
hostile for development. In fact, weakening appears likely in the Caribbean
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Gusts to
tropical storm force are possible Tuesday as the squalls move through.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible, mainly on Tuesday. These rains could cause
localized flooding and perhaps mudslides on barren hillsides.
The Department of Disaster Management
is monitoring the situation and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the
DDM’s website and subscribe for updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.