July 7, 20131015Views

Current Position: 8.2N and

Geographic Reference: 1540 miles
east-southeast of Barbados

Movement: West at 20

Organizational Trend: Steady

Chance of Development Within 48
50 percent

Forecast Confidence: Average

Previous Forecast

The latest model guidance
indicates that the disturbance will move through the Leeward and Windward
Islands late Tuesday instead of early Wednesday. Therefore, the impacts to the
Lesser Antilles will likely occur late Tuesday and early Wednesday.


There has been little change in
Disturbance 15 this evening. Squalls remain confined to the west of the center
due to moderate easterly wind shear. This marginal environment is likely to
persist for the next couple of days. Thereafter, shear should increase from the
west. Therefore, forecasters still think that if any development were to occur,
it would have to do so during the next 48 hours. Regardless as to whether or
not development occurs, the impacts will be similar for the Leeward and
Windward Islands.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean: Gusts to
tropical storm force are possible late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Lesser Antilles

Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches of rain
are possible from late Tuesday through early Wednesday from Disturbance 15 for
the Leeward and Windward Islands. These rains could cause localized flooding
and mudslides. The rains are likely regardless as to whether or not the system
develops into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.


Residents are encouraged to make
preparations as tropical cyclones moving off the African Coast will continue to
increase in intensification as we move further into the season. The DDM is
currently monitoring the situation and advise the public accordingly. Please
visit the DDM’s website and subscribe for updates.





Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.