TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 23 CONTINUES TO STRENGHTEN;TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT

Current Location: 9.5N/43.0W

Geographic Reference: 1225 miles east of
Trinidad

Movement: West-Northwest at 17 mph

Max Winds: 25 to 30 mph

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Forecast Track Confidence: Average

Chances of Development to a Tropical Storm Within 48 hours: 60%

Chances of Development to a Tropical Storm Beyond 48 hours: 80%

Changes to Our Previous Forecast

Forecasters have slowed down the disturbance a little as it
nears the Caribbean. It now appears that the impact on the Lesser Antilles
may be delayed until early Tuesday morning instead of Monday
afternoon/evening.

Forecast

Satellite imagery indicates that Disturbance 23 continues to
become better organized this afternoon. Forecasters think that the
thunderstorms associated with the disturbance will be increasing over the
next 24 hours, and the disturbance will most likely become a tropical storm
on Sunday when reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate the system. All
intensity model guidance indicates that the disturbance could become a
hurricane in 3-4 days, and forecasters are in agreement with that guidance.

The
general track should continue to be to the west-northwest for the next 3-4
days. This would take the center across the Lesser Antilles sometime on
Tuesday morning. Timing is somewhat uncertain as to when it will enter the
eastern Caribbean. By Wednesday morning, it may threaten the British Virgin
Islands probably as a hurricane.

Beyond
Wednesday, forecasters’ confidence in the track is on the low side. It looks
like an area of low pressure off the East U.S. Coast may draw the system
northward well east of the U.S. However, forecasters cannot rule out a threat
to the Bahamas or even the East U.S. Coast late next week. It’s just too soon
to tell.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles from St. Lucia Northward: Squalls
could reach the Islands on Monday afternoon. Rain accumulations of 5-10
inches possible. Tropical storm or hurricane force winds will be possible by
Tuesday morning.

U.S./British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls
could reach the area on Wednesday morning. Rainfall up to 5-10 inches
possible, with much higher amounts possible in the higher elevations of
Puerto Rico. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could impact the area
during the day on Wednesday.

Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo area): Squalls
may reach the area by Wednesday night. Rainfall up to 3-5 inches possible
from Wednesday night through Thursday. Forecasters think that most of the
heavy squalls will pass to the east of the Dominican Republic.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Eastern Caribbean Sea from St. Lucia Northward: Widespread
squalls are possible beginning Monday afternoon/evening, with deteriorating
conditions expected on Tuesday.

Residents are encouraged to monitor the system for any sudden
changes as it may pose a threat to the territory. The DDM is encouraging
persons to make the necessary preparations if they have not already done
so.  The 2011 hurricane season is
projected to be very active. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to the DDM’s
notification link.

Disclaimer:The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which
may result in the loss of finances, property or life.