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Current Location: 13.0N/48.0W
Geographic Reference: 770 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-Northwest
at 15 mph
Max Winds: 35 mph
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Track Confidence: Average
Chances of Development to a Tropical Storm Within 48 hours: 90%
Chances of Development to a Tropical Storm Beyond 48 hours: 95%
Changes to Our Previous Forecast
Based on the the latest satellite imagery forecasters have reset
the initial position. Forecasters have increased the chances of development
beyond 48 hours by 5 percent.
Forecast
Present forecast takes Disturbance 23 to the west-northwest over
the next several days. Forecasters expect it to slow slightly as it
approaches the northern Lesser Antilles. On Monday, forecasters expect it to
cross the islands and into the eastern Caribbean Sea with the center near the
Virgin Islands Tuesday evening. By Wednesday morning, a potential hurricane
could be moving across Puerto Rico back into the Atlantic. Beyond Wednesday,
the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas could face a hurricane
threat. Forecasters have about average confidence in the track over the next
several days.
Forecasters
expect Disturbance 23 to become a depression within the next 12-24 hours and
then a tropical storm soon thereafter. Environmental conditions favor steady
development, and there is a high chance, about 70 percent, that it could be a
hurricane by the time it reaches the northeastern Caribbean Sea on late
Monday or Tuesday.
Expected Impacts on Land
Lesser Antilles from St. Lucia Northward: Squalls could reach the Islands
by Sunday evening. Rain accumulations of 5-10 inches possible. Tropical storm
force winds will be possible by Monday afternoon and evening.
U.S./British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Squalls could reach the area
Monday night. Rainfall up to 5-10 inches possible, with much higher amounts
possible in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm or hurricane
conditions could impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Dominican Republic (Santo Domingo area): Squalls may reach the area by
Wednesday morning. Rainfall up to 3-5 inches possible from Wednesday through
Thursday. Forecasters think that most of the heavy squalls will pass to the
north and east of Santo Domingo.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean Sea from St. Lucia Northward: Widespread squalls are possible
beginning Sunday evening, with deteriorating conditions as the system moves
nearer. By Thursday the last squalls will exit the Caribbean waters near
Puerto Rico.
Residents are encouraged to monitor the system for any sudden
changes as it may pose a threat to the territory. The DDM is also encouraging
persons to make the necessary preparations if they have not already done so.
Waiting until formal watches and warnings to be issued can be too late for
some individuals depending on where the system develops. The 2011 hurricane
season is projected to be very active. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe to the DDM’s
notification link.
Disclaimer:The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which
may result in the loss of finances, property or life.
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