Current Location: 9N/42W
Geographic Reference: 1250
miles east of Trinidad
at 17 mph
Max Winds: 25 to 30
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Forecast Track Confidence: Average
Chances of Development to a
Tropical Storm Within 48 hours: 60%
Chances of Development to a
Tropical Storm Beyond 48 hours: 80%
Satellite imagery indicates that
Disturbance 23 continues to become better organized today. Forecasters can
identify a low-level circulation center on satellite. The only missing
ingredient needed to upgrade the low pressure area to a tropical depression is
a bit more thunderstorms near the center. Forecasters think that the
thunderstorms will be increasing over the next 24 hours, and the disturbance
will most likely become tropical storm over the weekend. All intensity model
guidance indicates that the disturbance could become a hurricane in 3-4
days. The general track should continue
to be to the west-northwest for the next 3-4 days. This would take the center
across the Lesser Antilles sometime on Monday afternoon or Monday evening.
Timing is somewhat uncertain as to when it will enter the eastern Caribbean. By
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, it should be threatening the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, probably as a hurricane.
Expected Impacts on Land
Lesser Antilles from St. Lucia
Northward: Squalls could reach the Islands on Monday morning. Rain
accumulations of 5-10 inches possible. Tropical storm or hurricane force winds
will be possible by on Monday afternoon/evening. U.S./British Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico: Squalls could reach the area on Tuesday evening. Rainfall up to
5-10 inches possible, with much higher amounts possible in the higher
elevations of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could impact
the area on Wednesday morning. Dominican
Republic: Squalls may reach the area by noon Wednesday. Rainfall up to
5-10 inches possible from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean Sea from St.
Lucia Northward: Widespread squalls are possible beginning
Monday morning, with deteriorating conditions expected through early Tuesday.
The Department of Disaster
Management will continue to monitor the progress of this system over the
weekend and the upcoming holidays. Please visit the Department’s website at www.bviddm.com for further updates.
The Department of
Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The
Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of
professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information.
This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local
weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held
accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal
evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of
finances, property or life.