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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 31 STRENGTHENING;UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE VI

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 31 STRENGTHENING;UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE VI

August 20, 2011637Views

Current Location: 14.3N/53.6W

Geographic Reference: 780 miles south
east of the Virgin Islands

Movement: West to west-northwest
at 21 mph

Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40
mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly
increasing

Chance of Development to a Tropical
Storm Within 48 hours: 80 percent

Chance of Development to a Tropical
Storm Beyond 48 hours: 95 percent

Forecast Track Confidence: Average,
due to good model agreement and stable steering level winds.

Disturbance 31 continues
moving quickly to the west-northwest, but has slowed slightly. On this track
it will move through the Lesser Antilles by early Sunday morning. Once in the
Caribbean it will continue on a west-northwest track, passing south of Puerto
Rico early Monday, and between Cuba and Jamaica late Tuesday or early
Wednesday.

The associated
thunderstorm activity is increasing this morning and Disturbance 31 is
becoming a little better organized. Conditions are expected to be favorable
for development over the next few days, and development chances have
increased to 80 percent over the next 48 hours. Development chances beyond 48
hours have increased to 95 percent. If the system does develop, there does
not appear to be much that will keep it from reaching hurricane strength. If
it does become a hurricane, then that would probably not occur until Tuesday
morning when it is passing near or south of Haiti.

The Disturbance is expected to be within the vicinity
of the territory around Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon and last
through Monday.
At present forecasters have indicated that Squall
like conditions maybe felt during this period however, if conditions continue
to deteriorate Flash Flood Watches
or Warnings maybe issued at short notice
. As the system continues to
converge closer to the Lesser Antilles the anticipation of strengthening is
also likely therefore the Antigua Meteorological Office at short notice may
issue Storm Watches or Warnings if there is a drastic strength. A hurricane
hunter aircraft is expected to fly into the system this afternoon.  With the current  events unfolding  residents are asked to monitor the system for
any sudden changes and make the necessary preparations in the event the
system is upgraded before it passes the territory.  

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM)
will continue to monitor the weather conditions and provide updates
accordingly. Persons can visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and
subscribe to their notification link to receive further updates.

Disclaimer:The
Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological
Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a
number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such
information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has
interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI
Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which
may result in the loss of finances, property or life.