20th August, 2010 – Earlier today, Tropical Disturbance #39 was centered in the Atlantic about 275 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands, near 11N/26W. Movement is to the west at 7 mph. Maximum winds are around 30 mph. Satellite and surface observations indicate the forming of a low pressure center, which usually leads to the development of a tropical depression.
Forecasters give this system a 60 percent to become at least a tropical depression within the next 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, the chances of development continue to increase, up to 80 percent or higher. The experts think that Tropical Disturbance #39 may perhaps become a strong hurricane over the coming week.
Northerly high pressure should steer TD 39 westward for the next 2-3 days, then gradually to the west-northwest and the northwest. Current computer models predict the most likely track of this system is a northward turn that should take it east of the Caribbean Sea, away from the islands. However, this Disturbance could track more westward than anticipated, increasing the potential for an impact on the northeast Caribbean, which includes the Virgin Islands.
Presently, there is no threat to the Virgin Islands; however, everyone should pay close attention to the progress of this system for any sudden changes. Residents are reminded that we are approaching the peak of the Hurricane Season, when tropical waves exiting the African coast have a higher potential for development and a greater ability to affect our Territory. The public is urged to have all plans and contingency measures in place now, or to make it a priority to get them completed.
The DDM will continue to monitor the system and provide updates where necessary. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at www.bviddm.com for continuously updated information.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.