30th September 2010 – As of 5PM Tropical Disturbance 57 consisted of a large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands. It is moving to the west-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 20-30 mph in the stronger squalls. While satellite data indicates that the disturbance is better defined, there remains no well-defined center.
Forecasters think that Tropical Disturbance 57 will track to the west-northwest at 15 mph over the next couple of days, and then slow down as it enters the eastern Caribbean. This would bring it near the Virgin Islands on Saturday evening. The disturbance is then expected to move in the general direction of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic in the early part of next week.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring squally conditions with locally heavy rainfall to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. Its slow motion will allow it to produce copious rainfall during the beginning of next week across the islands of the northeast Caribbean.
At this time there is a 20 percent chance that this system will become a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. Beyond then there is about a 50 percent chance. The probability of it becoming a hurricane over the next 48 hours is very low, less than 5 percent. There is about a 15 percent chance that it could become a hurricane beyond then.
The public is again reminded that we are in the peak of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Persons in flood prone areas are to be on high alert at all times. Having an evacuation plan and knowing where the shelters are is encouraged. Personal belongings should be secured on upper shelves in homes that are in flood prone areas. Persons are also reminded not to engage in activities that may block the natural waterways.
DDM will continue to monitor this system and provide releases as necessary. Please visit the Department of Disaster Management’s website at www.bviddm.com for continuously updated information.