October 11, 20121034Views

Current Location: 9.7N / 54.2W

Geographic Reference: 420 miles
east-southeast of Barbados

Movement: West-northwest at 11 mph

Organizational Trend: Slowly

Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 30 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 50 percent

Changes from Previous Forecast

There are a few changes with this update. This system is showing
signs of increasing organization and might be consolidating a bit east of the
previous center fix. The initial position has been adjusted accordingly. It
also appears that the center will track east of the previous forecast and
slightly faster. The chances of development in the section above were each
increased by 10 percent.


Forecasters expect slow development of this large disturbance in
the face of strong wind shear over the next couple of days. Beyond then
conditions are expected to be more conducive for development. This system may
not have the level of organization to be considered a tropical cyclone, but it
already has winds to tropical storm strength in the squalls well to the north
of the center. If this condition persists, the disturbance would skip the
depression stage and be declared a tropical storm while moving over the Leeward

Forecasters expect a
west-northwest to northwest track over the next 3 days or so. While near the
northern Leewards, it should turn to the north and remain east of the Bahamas
and United States for the remainder of its life span. It should be noted that
the model guidance has been trending eastward lately, and the center of this
system could remain just to the east of the Lesser Antilles. However, it would
still be close enough to spread squally conditions over the islands.

Expected Impacts on Land

Windward and Leeward Islands, including St. Lucia: Showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase over the next 36
hours. Sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in squalls are
possible Friday into the weekend along with up to 6 inches of rain.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Sustained winds of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts possibly as high as
45 mph in squalls are possible early Friday through Saturday night along with
3-6 inches of rain.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Offshore St. Lucia: Sustained winds
of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph in squalls are possible tomorrow
evening through Friday night.

Offshore Trinidad: Sustained winds
of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in squalls are possible tomorrow
evening into Friday.


Residents should pay close attention
to this system as it has the potential of being a Tropical Storm when it
approaches or pass close to the territory.
The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is currently
monitoring the system and will provide updates accordingly. Please visit the
DDM’s website at and subscribe for future updates.


Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.