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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 58 IN THE ATLANTIC COULD AFFECT THE VI

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 58 IN THE ATLANTIC COULD AFFECT THE VI

October 9, 2012737Views

Current Location: 9.0N / 45.0W

Geographic Reference: 1020 miles east-southeast
of Barbados

Movement: West at 15 mph

Organizational Trend: Steady

Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 15 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 30 percent

 

Forecast

Disturbance 58 continues moving westward in the central tropical
Atlantic. Forecasters think that the disturbance is likely to reach the Lesser
Antilles between Thursday night and Friday night. It could then affect the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Saturday as it turns to the northwest, as
indicated by many of the computer models.

The
disturbance remains disorganized, and development is not expected during the
next couple of days. Many of the forecast models are indicating some
development by late in the week as it passes through the Lesser Antilles.
Strong wind shear covers a large area of the Atlantic just to the north of the
path of this system. Forecasters think that the disturbance will most likely
move across the northeast Caribbean as a weak low pressure area or possibly a
tropical depression. As such, the greatest threat to the region will be from
occasional squalls with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Expected Impacts on Land

Windward and Leeward Islands, including St. Lucia: Sustained winds of 25 mph to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph in
squalls are possible Thursday night through early Saturday along with the
possibility of 3-6 inches of rain.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Sustained winds of 25 mph to 40 mph with gusts possibly as high as
60 mph in squalls are possible Friday night through Sunday morning along with
the possibility of 3-6 inches of rain.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Offshore St. Lucia: Sustained winds
of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph in squalls are possible Thursday night
through early Saturday.

 

Based on the present forecast there is a possibility that the
Virgin Islands can be affected by inclement weather over the weekend however,
the forecasts’ are in the early stages and subject to change as the Disturbance
progresses.  The Department of Disaster
Management will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates where
necessary. Please visit the DDM’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for
future updates.

 

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.