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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 58 LIKELY TO AFFECT NE CARIBBEAN

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 58 LIKELY TO AFFECT NE CARIBBEAN

October 10, 20121153Views

Current Location: 9.7N / 51.2W

Geographic Reference: 710 miles
east-southeast St. Lucia and 670 miles east of Trinidad

Movement: West-northwest at 23 mph

Organizational Trend: Increasing
gradually

Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 20 percent

Chance of Development Beyond 48 Hours: 40 percent

Changes from Our Previous Forecast

The probability of development has been increased from 15 to 20
percent within 48 hours, and 30 to 40 percent beyond 48 hours.

 Forecast

A west-northwest track is expected for the next 48 hours. Forecasters
think that the disturbance is likely to reach the Lesser Antilles by Thursday
afternoon or evening. Once the disturbance enters the eastern Caribbean, it is
expected to turn to the north-northwest. It could then affect The Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and possibly the Dominican Republic Friday through
Sunday. By next Monday, a northward track is likely, which would take the
system towards Bermuda followed by a north-northeastward acceleration into the
open Atlantic.

The structure and
organization of Disturbance 58 has not improved yet, but thunderstorm activity
has been increasing on the east side of the disturbance. Sustained winds of 25
mph to 35 mph accompany the disturbance with occasional gusts to 45 mph in
squalls in the northeastern and southeastern quadrants. An upper-level low to the
north is producing some moderate wind shear over the disturbance. There is a
chance that the disturbance will be able to overcome this wind shear over the
next few days, especially once it enters the eastern Caribbean Sea. Forecasters
think that the disturbance will most likely move across the northeast Caribbean
as a weak low pressure area or possibly a tropical depression. As such, the
greatest threat to the region will be from squalls with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. The disturbance has a higher chance to become a tropical storm as it
exits the Caribbean to the north of Puerto Rico and as it moves northward over
the open Atlantic.

Expected Impacts on Land

Windward and Leeward Islands, including St. Lucia: The first squalls are likely by Wednesday evening. Sustained winds
of 25 mph to 35 mph with gusts to 50 mph in squalls are possible Wednesday
evening through Friday along with 3-6 inches of rain.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico: Sustained winds of 25 mph to 40 mph with gusts possibly as high as
60 mph in squalls are possible early Friday through Saturday night along with
3-6 inches of rain.

Expected Impacts Offshore

Offshore St. Lucia: Sustained winds
of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph in squalls are possible Wednesday
evening through Friday night.

Offshore Trinidad: Sustained winds
of 20 mph to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph in squalls are possible Wednesday
afternoon through early Friday.

 

Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information
appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may
result in the loss of finances, property or life.