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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
2:00 PM ECT WED, AUG 19, 2020

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

….. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 HAS ENTERED THE MONITORED AREA AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE….

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY REQUIRED.

AT THIS TIME THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS. GIVEN THE DISTANCE FROM THE NORTH EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME, AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. NOTWITHSTANDING, THE DISTURBANCE COULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AROUND THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE ELEVATED THREAT LEVEL, RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

AT 2PM (1800 U.T.C) THE DISTURBANCE AL98 WAS LOCATED NEAR TO LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1,099 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 1,321 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. DISTURBANCE AL98 IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AT 15-20 MPH WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING CONCENTRATED TO THE WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

AT THIS TIME AN ALERT IS IN EFFECT AND RESIDENTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

FORECASTER
ORVIN PAIGE