August 19, 20111420Views

Current Location: 13.3N/46.8W

Geographic Reference: 980 miles east of the Leeward Islands

Movement: West at 20 mph

Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph

Organizational Trend: Increasing

Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm Within 48 hours: 40 percent

Chance of Development to a Tropical Storm Beyond 48 hours: 90 percent

Forecast Track Confidence: Average, due to good model agreement and stable steering level winds.



The disturbance continues to move quickly to the west. A gradual west-northwest turn is expected during the next day or two and this track should continue for the next several days. On this track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Lesser Antilles Sunday morning and in the general direction of the Dominican Republic or Jamaica early next week. The confidence in the track forecast remains average.

The disturbance is better organized this morning and conditions are becoming more favorable for development. Therefore, forecasters have increased the chances of the disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone to 40 percent through the next 48 hours and to 90 percent afterward. If the system does develop, there does not appear to be much that will keep it from reaching hurricane intensity. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains average.

Expected Impacts on Land

Lesser Antilles: Squalls are likely to move over the Leeward and northern Windward Islands on Sunday morning. 4-6 inches of rain are likely.

U.S. and British Virgin Islands: Squalls are expected to move into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands around Monday.


Presently the system is not a threat to the VI however, residents should continue to monitor the system as it has not passed the territory. The DDM will continue to monitor the Disturbance and provide updates when necessary Please visit the DDM’s website at and subscribe to the DDM’s notification link.

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.