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TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 17, 2023

TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 17, 2023

June 17, 2023276Views

We continue to monitor a strong tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, which forecasters expect may be near the northern Leeward Islands by next Friday.

A strong tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that is located along 27.5W, or to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to track in a west to west-northwesterly direction at around 15 mph over the next week.

There is good model agreement that the disturbance will develop a low-level circulation center at some point as it tracks across the Tropical Atlantic over the next few days. Forecasters are predicting it to become a tropical depression as early as Monday of next week and then possibly a weak tropical storm prior to reaching the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

The disturbance is forecast to be moving along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure to its north over the next several days. By the end of next week, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken. As this occurs, the system is expected to turn to the north. The latest model guidance shows that this northward turn could occur before it reaches the northeast Caribbean Sea but there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the turn. This system is not expected to move westward across the Caribbean and toward the Gulf of Mexico. A turn in the track to the north into the open waters of the Atlantic is still the likely scenario after it reaches or nears the northeast Caribbean Sea. The latest model guidance also continues to show the system weakening as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

There is now a 40 percent chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and then an 80 percent chance of tropical development within the next week. (Meteorologist: John Hale)

Source: Stormgeo.com

Photo Source : https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

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