Current Position: 10.3N and
49.2W
Geographic Reference: 715 miles
east-southeast of Barbados
Movement: West at 26
mph
Max. Wind: 40 mph
gusting to 50 mph
Last Reported NHC Wind Speed (10
PM CDT): 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size
/1 intensity)
Peak Hurricane Severity Index: 3 (1 size
/2 intensity)
Forecast Confidence: Average
Organizational Trend: Increasing
Previous Forecast
Due to Chantal’s current motion, forecasters
are expect the system to move through the Leeward and Windward Islands in about
24 to 30 hours. This is about 6 hours sooner than was indicated in the previous
advisory. The impacts will likely begin late this evening and last through
tomorrow afternoon. The intensity forecast has also been modified. Forecasters
are now forecasting Chantal to remain a tropical storm through the next 5 days.
This is based upon the latest model guidance. The 25 mph wind radii were also
reduced, especially to the west of the center. This was based upon the latest
satellite data.
Forecast
Tropical Storm Chantal continues
rapidly to the west. With the exception of the faster forward speed, there are
few changes to the track forecast through the next 5 days. However, beyond 5
days, the latest models are indicating an increasing threat to the southeast
United States. It appears as if the greatest threat lies from north Florida
through South Carolina. Any impact in this area likely will not occur until
Sunday.
The latest satellite data indicate that winds remain at 40 mph.
With the exception of keeping Chantal as a tropical storm through the next 5
days, there has been no change to the intensity forecast. Environmental
conditions still appear as if they will become more hostile once Chantal enters
the eastern Caribbean. 50 mph remains the peak intensity. It should be stated
that this is somewhat below the intensity forecast guidance. If the environment
does not become as hostile as forecast, Chantal will likely become a strong
tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Caribbean: Sustained
tropical storm force winds are expected to begin during the overnight hours
tonight and tomorrow morning. These winds likely will last throughout Tuesday.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Lesser Antilles
Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible today and tomorrow. Isolated totals could be as
high as 8 inches. These rains could cause localized flooding and perhaps
mudslides on barren hillsides.
Dominican Republic
Rainfall: 3 to 6
inches of rain are possible on Wednesday with higher totals in the mountains.
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible.
Bahamas
Rainfall: Up to 6
inches of rain are possible, mainly from late Thursday through Saturday.
Localized street flooding is possible
The Virgin Islands
Based on the present forecast, squalls
and wind gusts of tropical storm force can be expected in the Virgin Islands.
Residents are urged to monitor
the system as it has not passed the territory and with current intensification
and uncertainty of its path, may have a greater effect on the territory. The
Department of Disaster Management(DDM) will continue to monitor the situation
and provide updates accordingly. Please visit the DDM’s website and subscribe
for updates.
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) is not an
official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department
is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDM
to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by
anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDM or
the BVI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information inappropriately
for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the
loss of finances, property or life.
